The U.S. crime rate is still dropping, FBI data shows

New FBI data confirms previous indications that crime in the U.S. declined significantly in 2023, continuing a post-pandemic trend and belying widespread perceptions that crime is rising.

The new fourth-quarter numbers showed a 13% decline in murder in 2023 from 2022, a 6% decline in reported violent crime, and a 4% decline in reported property crime. That’s based on data from around 13,000 law enforcement agencies, policing about 82% of the U.S. population, that provided the FBI with quarterly data through December.

“It suggests that when we get the final data in October, we will have seen likely the largest one-year decline in murder that has ever been recorded,” said Jeff Asher, a former CIA analyst who now studies crime trends.

Full story: The U.S. crime rate is still dropping, FBI data shows

6 Replies to “The U.S. crime rate is still dropping, FBI data shows”

  1. In the article it mentions that crime may be actually going down but citizens perceive certain areas as unsafe and may assume that it is dangerous to be there. The article calls this “disorder”. If citizens perceive certain places like this does that mean those areas do have high crime? Taking a look at research done by Robert J Sampson and Stephen W Raudenbush presented by the National Institute of Justice their article Disorder in Urban Neighborhoods – Does it lead to crime it states, “ Signs of physical and social disorder are highly visible cues to which neighborhood residents respond, and they potentially influence migration, investment, and the overall viability of a neighborhood. In particular, disorder may operate in a cascading fashion by motivating residents to move out of their neighbor-hood, thereby increasing residential instability. And because people move only if they have the financial means to do so, outmigration would increase the concentration of poverty among those left behind. Since residential instability and concentrated poverty are associated with lower collective efficacy and higher crime and disorder, over the course of time this process would lead to more crime and disorder.” That being said it seems that there is some implication that areas of disorder do lead to crime and if many citizens feel this way perhaps the crime stats are wrong.

    1. Alejandro, I think your pose a great point about these statistics. Whilst overall statistics may show a decrease in crime, not statistic is 100 percent bulletproof in nature. The idea of outmigration and people leaving crime ridden areas could certainly be part of this drop in crime, as perhaps it is still happening quite often, yet there are less people present to be victimized. on the contrary, the drop could also be due to increased police budgets and responsiveness, although this does not always correlate to a decrease in crime rates, and could even increase them. Once again, the idea of outmigration, and the condition that some areas are in may be leading to decreases in crime merely due to the fear of potential or former residents.

    2. I agree that disorder may lead to problems arising that could slowly escalate into as described to actually more crime happening. I believe however, that it’s a matter of education to prevent that. If those in the area are educated about the continuous fall in crime, it may lead to the opposite through a similar process as mentioned previously.
      Public view of a situation is very important though because it can lead to problems all of itself; Though in reality it shouldn’t and may be wrong.

  2. This article highlights how the media tends to sensationalize and cherry pick the most egregious crimes and present them as everyday occurrences, a tactic that only raises community fear. This fear can be clearly seen in the Gallup poll that showed 77% of Americans believe crime rates have been worsening, despite many pre-Covid crime reduction strategies resuming operations. However, this lowered statistic does’t present a full story; it discusses the programs that have started up again, but what about the mass influx of openings in law enforcement positions? Theoretically, less law enforcement would have a criminogenic effect on communities, and yet it seems the opposite has been true since the pandemic lockdown. It makes me interested in potential alternatives and community safety measures in place of additional law enforcement.

    1. I agree with you that media portrayals can create a distorted view of crime, focusing on extreme cases rather than the overall trend, making it seem like crime is everywhere, even though the FBI data shows a decline. This gap between perception and reality is interesting. Maybe it’s because of how crime is reported. Another interesting point you bring up is law enforcement staffing and the opening of positions. It makes me think that with fewer officers, there might be less emphasis on preventative measures like community engagement or patrolling high-crime areas, making the pre-pandemic strategies harder to actually implement everyday although they are said to have resumed. However, you mention these strategies resuming, and they could be contributing to the decline, but there is a lack of confirmation and I too am interested in alternative possibilities that may be occurring.

    2. I completely agree with you Ethan the media does fearmonger on both sides leading to panic and falsified facts in our country on political issues such as crime. This statistic just shows that the exact opposite is true instead of mass crime and panic, crime is steadily going down and people will watch the media and go throughout the day to day life being paranoid as if they are going to be hurt every day if they aren’t watching there backs I’m not saying that it isn’t dangerous in some parts of our country but I do think it is definitely exaggerated.

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