Purpose: Government repression against civilians while enforcing restrictive policies related to COVID-19 was widely reported in Africa. At the same time, many have claimed that high-speed mobile data and social media provide an accountability mechanism that may constrain police abuses. This study focused on Nigeria to examine (1) the effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on police repression and (2) whether widespread high-speed mobile data networks constrain or facilitate police repression.
Design/Methodology: Using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Database (ACLED) and the Mobile Coverage Database, and focusing on regional sub-units in Nigeria, this study used Difference-in-Differences (DID) and triple difference (DDD) estimation on a sample of 423,925 observations (local government area-days) between January 1, 2019 and June 30, 2020 to estimate the causal effects of COVID-19 lockdowns and high-speed mobile data on police repression.
Findings: Difference-in-Differences (DID) analyses reveal no increases in police repression during lockdown periods. However, triple difference (DDD) estimation finds that certain forms of police repression were greater during lockdown periods in areas with substantial high-speed (4G) mobile networks (a proxy indicator of rapid information dissemination and video sharing). Net 4G effects, separate from the lockdowns, were also observed. Police repression increased in areas with a widespread 4G network, even without lockdowns.
Research Implications: Contrary to theoretical hypotheses derived from self-awareness theory, as well as anecdotal claims of a “viral video effect” or “Ferguson Effect” constraining police behavior, proliferation of high-speed mobile networks in Nigeria appears to facilitate, rather than constrain, police repression. Additional studies may explore through what causal mechanisms high-speed mobile network proliferation affects police repression. For instance, it is possible that high-speed mobile data and social media allow police to detect and repress citizen behaviors they disapprove of, rather than permitting citizens to correct police behaviors they disapprove of.
Originality/Value: Although many studies have explored the COVID-19 pandemic and police behavior in Western countries, only a few have examined its effects in states with even more troubled policing institutions, including those in sub-Saharan Africa. The findings of increased government repression during lockdowns in areas with 4G proliferation, as well as the independent effects of 4G facilitating police repression even without lockdowns, present significant counterevidence to observations from the U.S. and elsewhere, which has suggested that the ability to rapidly and widely share videos of police misconduct via mobile devices can limit police repression. Such effects were not found in Nigeria.
Published in Policing: An International Journal